All eyes are on US trade policy as the country moves to protect its own interests. NAFTA is being renegotiated. Tariffs of 25% and 10% have been imposed on steel and aluminum imports, including for key US allies, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Negotiations are being conducted with China to restrict exports from China to the US and to level the playing field in intellectual property. At the same time, the import of automobiles from the EU is being investigated by the US on a national security basis, increasing the chances of further retaliation.

Despite this, world trade is continuing to grow robustly – we forecast 3.5% growth this year. While US trade policy is increasingly biting, there is not (yet) pain on a national or global scale. In addition, negotiations of new trade agreements are accelerating.