With an anticipated 60% participation rate, the 2024 EU elections are poised to be a crucial event for the European Parliament. According to the April 2024 Eurobarometer survey, voters prioritize addressing poverty (33%) and public health (32%). Meanwhile, political parties’ manifestos highlight five key topics: climate and energy, security and defense, competitiveness and growth, foreign policy, and fiscal and industrial policies. Although we expect the main centrist parties to retain a majority of the 720 seats, right-wing parties are likely to gain more support, potentially influencing the EU’s legislative priorities, especially in areas like security and defense.
The upcoming EU Commission should focus on enhancing competitiveness, revamping foreign policy on trade, strengthening defense and security, tackling climate change, and developing strategic fiscal policies. To boost competitiveness, the EU must cultivate a culture of innovation, increase investment in R&D, and embrace digitization and AI to drive productivity gains. In foreign policy, the EU should leverage its trade strengths by pursuing new FTAs and smaller bilateral agreements that, while easier to reach, can have significant impacts. Defense and security policies need to adapt to the evolving security landscape, reallocating EU budget resources towards common defense spending. Fiscal policy should become more strategic, with a long-term vision that supports strategic industries, economic stability, and growth through counter-cyclical spending, taxation policies, and structural reforms. This includes addressing investment needs related to the climate transition (exceeding 3% of GDP) and defense and security (over 2% of GDP).
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