The WTO Global Trade Outlook for April 2025 shows trade prospects have worsened significantly due to rising tariffs and growing trade policy uncertainty (TPU).
As of April 14, world merchandise trade is now expected to shrink by 0.2% in 2025, a sharp downgrade from earlier forecasts that anticipated growth. A modest recovery of 2.5% is projected for 2026. This downgrade reflects recent policy changes, particularly the U.S. suspension of reciprocal tariffs. If these tariffs are reinstated and TPU spreads further, trade could decline by 1.5% in 2025, with least-developed countries especially vulnerable.
At the start of the year WTO economists were expecting continued trade expansion thanks to improving macroeconomic conditions but with the recent policy shifts their new estimate for 2025 is nearly three percentage points lower.
