The positive outlook at the beginning of 2023 quickly gave way to indications that the latter part of the year would be significantly less favorable.
In addition to the well-documented risks, some of which are escalating (such as financial stability, social and political concerns), it’s important to note that the battle against inflation is still ongoing: excluding energy, inflation rates remain considerably higher than the targets set by central banks. Moreover, the situation in the oil market has once again become tense following the incidents in Israel. All the key indicators are pointing towards a significant slowdown in economic activity in North America and the Eurozone towards the year’s end. The rebound of the Chinese economy has swiftly encountered structural vulnerabilities and a lack of confidence among households and businesses. Given this scenario, we have adjusted assessments for 7 countries (2 upgrades and 5 downgrades) and 33 sectors (17 upgrades and 16 downgrades), indicating a measure of consistency in our outlook for the next 18 months. This is set against a backdrop of high volatility and uncertainty in the environment.
Learn more here: https://www.coface.com/News-Publications/News/Country-and-Sector-Risk-Barometer-Q3-2023-Macroeconomics-put-to-the-test-by-microeconomic-deterioration
