Canadian Trade and Budget 2025

Canada’s 2025 federal budget marks one of the most ambitious trade shifts in decades—one that aims to reposition the country for long-term global competitiveness. Section 2.2 of the budget represents a clear refocusing of national trade priorities: moving from reliance to resilience, from a U.S.-centric export profile to a broader global footprint.

To unpack what this means for Canadian businesses, I spoke with Jordan Mofford, Credit Analyst Manager at Coface Canada, on the TradeSecurely podcast. His insights reveal a landscape filled with both opportunity and new complexities—especially for companies preparing to enter unfamiliar markets.

A Pivotal Shift in Canada’s Trade Strategy

According to Mofford, the 2025 budget is a direct response to the supply chain disruptions and geopolitical instability that defined global trade throughout 2025. The overarching goal is clear: double Canada’s exports to non-U.S. markets over the next 10 years, unlocking roughly $300 billion in new trade.

“While many Canadians are concerned with the outlook of an increased deficit,” Mofford noted, “most do support the idea that diversifying our trading partners would benefit us, and can rationalize the strategy as a type of generational investment.”

Key to enabling this diversification is a major investment in trade-enabling infrastructure. The budget outlines bold commitments to unlock new pathways for goods to flow in and out of Canada.

Investing in the Backbone of Trade

Central to this new strategy is a $5-billion commitment to the Trade Corridors Fund, managed by Transport Canada and spread over seven years. The fund supports:

  • Port expansions
  • Rail modernization
  • Digital infrastructure upgrades
  • Supply chain optimization projects

These improvements aim to reduce longstanding bottlenecks that have slowed Canadian exporters for decades.

Beyond southern corridors, the government is targeting critical northern and Arctic routes. A $1-billion Arctic Infrastructure Fund will support the development of roads, airports, and seaports designed for both commercial and military use—an acknowledgment of the region’s strategic importance as global trade routes evolve.

“These updates, as noted in the budget, outline a strategic but ambitious trade infrastructure plan which paints a clear picture of Canada’s need to diversify exports and build economic resilience,” Mofford said.

The Role of Trade Credit Insurance in Enabling Safe Growth

As Canadian companies move into new markets, the risks increase—particularly around buyer solvency, political instability, and payment uncertainty.

“Simply put, more exports will equal more demand for trade credit insurance,” Mofford stated plainly. “When Canadian companies start selling more to foreign markets, they face higher payment risk. Especially in regions with less predictable economic or political stability.”

Trade credit insurance (TCI) becomes a vital tool for businesses navigating unfamiliar markets because insurers also provide critical intelligence—real-time assessments of buyer reliability and country-specific political or economic risks.

As Mofford says, having trade credit insurance is a ‘look before you leap’ approach.

How SMEs Stand to Benefit

While large corporations are expected to pursue major contracts through these infrastructure and trade initiatives, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are poised to benefit as well—particularly as subcontractors and as exporters in niche sectors.

Projects spanning construction, logistics, engineering, technology, agrifood, and manufacturing all create space for specialized small firms. But these opportunities come with heightened exposure:

  • Long payment cycles tied to large contracts
  • Multi-tier supply chain risks, where defaults cascade downward
  • Working capital pressures due to larger orders
  • Exposure to political and economic volatility in global markets

“TCI allows access to better financing terms and higher credit limits which can be the difference between these businesses winning a project or having to walk away, said Mofford.

TCI acts as a financial shock absorber, Mofford emphasized. It doesn’t eliminate operational or compliance challenges, but it ensures companies aren’t left vulnerable when risks translate into non-payment.

Understanding Political Risk in New Markets

As Canada expands into countries with different regulatory, cultural, and political environments, companies must be equipped to manage unfamiliar risks.

As Mofford says, “It’s kind of like jumping into unknown waters. So, when you look to TCI, it’s acting as that life jacket. As companies navigate unfamiliar countries, political landscapes, sudden regulatory changes, currency fluctuations, just to name a few.”

TCI helps companies navigate these unknowns, providing market intelligence and risk mitigation tools that support strategic decision-making.

Looking Ahead: Canada in 2035

What might Canada’s trade landscape look like in 10 years if this ambitious plan succeeds?

Mofford offered a hopeful perspective.

“I would say with the ambition that we’re putting forward, Canada would look a lot different. It would certainly be beneficial for our country and our businesses to be able to reach out globally and certainly build their brands. So, I would hope to see that come to fruition in 10 years.”

If Canada delivers on its infrastructure commitments and companies embrace both the ambition and the necessary protections, the next decade could be transformative.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 federal budget sets the stage for a generational shift in how Canada trades with the world. But success requires more than investment—it demands that companies expand strategically, with proper safeguards in place.

Trade credit insurance stands out as a key enabler, helping businesses of all sizes explore new markets responsibly while protecting their cash flow and growth.

As the global trade environment continues to evolve, staying informed, staying resilient, and trading securely will be essential.

Janet Eastman is host of the TradeSecurely podcast which is produced on behalf of the Receivables Insurance Association of Canada (RIAC).

Listen to Jordan Mofford on the TradeSecurely podcast.

A RIAC member can answer your questions about trade credit insurance/receivables insurance.