Lights out! Energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty
- As Russian gas supply is coming to a halt, the fight against inflation is raging and political uncertainties coalesce, our previous adverse scenario has become reality. The trifecta of lower growth, higher inflation and higher rates will hit even harder. We expect global growth to slip into negative territory in Q4 (-0.1% q/q), followed by a slow recovery at +1.5% in 2023. Consumer sentiment has already plunged to record lows and business confidence continues to deteriorate rapidly, which will hold back consumption and investment.
- Eurozone growth is likely to plunge to -0.8% in 2023 due to soaring energy prices and negative confidence effects. Increased fiscal support to the tune of 2.5% of GDP on average and limited monetary easing after mid-2023 will help make the recession shorter and shallower, and limit the risks of social unrest. But it will not fully offset the shock on real disposable incomes and corporate margins.
- The US will register a -0.7% fall in GDP, mainly due to rapidly tightening monetary and financial conditions, which will significantly cool the housing market, coupled with a negative external environment and low fiscal support after the mid-term elections.
Learn more here: https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/economic-outlook.html