The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused an energy crisis, which is having an unexpected impact on the energy mix. In the short term, there has been an increase in the use of fossil fuels, but in the long term, the crisis is accelerating the trend towards cleaner energy. Countries, particularly in Europe, are being pushed towards renewables and away from fossil fuels, especially gas, due to higher energy prices and the need for energy security. Our updated benchmark outlook, which is based on the International Energy Agency’s Announced Policies Scenario, reflects this trend. It predicts higher fossil fuel prices, lower global energy demand, and a cleaner energy mix by 2050, limiting the temperature rise to 1.7 degrees Celsius. Although this outlook is a step towards the Net Zero Emissions 2050 scenario, achieving either scenario will require significant investment and effort.

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